What are the current theme park trends?

Investing.com -- KeyBanc analysts see positive trends in domestic theme park attendance, with May data said to have shown acceleration for both Disney and Universal parks.

They were said to have been notably boosted by California locations and the contribution of Universal’s new EPIC Universe.

According to KeyBanc’s geolocation data, May attendance for Disney parks rose "plus 4% y/y vs. +3% in April," while Universal saw a "plus 7% y/y" increase, jumping to "plus 35% y/y including EPIC." 

This marks a strong rebound for Universal, which experienced a 3% year-over-year decline in April.

California parks were reportedly a key driver of this improvement. The firm explained that Universal Studios Hollywood (USH) attendance surged "plus 19% y/y (vs. -14% y/y in April)," and Disneyland (DL) attendance was up "plus 6% y/y (vs. -3% in April)." 

KeyBanc attributes this to a "function of normalization now that the California wildfires are behind us paired with the DL 70th anniversary celebration," which commenced on May 16.

Conversely, outside of EPIC Universe, Universal Orlando (USO (NYSE:USO)) "decelerated to -4% y/y (vs. +3% y/y in April)," and Walt Disney (NYSE:DIS) World (WDW) "decelerated to +3% y/y (vs. +5% y/y in April)."

EPIC Universe’s performance is meeting expectations, according to KeyBanc, with "average daily attendance ramped to ~12K/day exiting May and hit a peak of >16K." 

While KeyBanc’s data suggests "a modest acceleration in attendance for Disney" overall, the concern remains regarding "competition from EPIC for WDW, given WDW’s deceleration." 

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For Universal, KeyBanc identifies "some initial cannibalization from EPIC," though they believe this is "likely partially offset by higher EPIC/multi-park ticket prices," leading them to remain comfortable with their "above consensus estimates."

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