China military parade: Is Trump’s outreach stalling?

Investing.com -- Chinese President Xi Jinping staged a show of power in Beijing this week, hosting Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un for a military parade that underscored a tightening alignment among authoritarian states.
The gathering, described by BCA Research as “a Eurasian show of solidarity,” came just days after President Donald Trump’s effort to broker a ceasefire in Ukraine, highlighting the contrast between Washington’s stalled diplomacy and Beijing’s assertive displays of unity.
Trump met with Putin in Alaska in what was billed as a good-faith attempt to reduce hostilities.
But since then, “the signals … have not been positive,” the report noted. If Putin rejects Trump’s outreach, analysts expect Washington to escalate.
“IIf Trump is spurned and humiliated for reaching out to Russia, then he will need to impose new sanctions on Russia and likely also China. Large new tariffs on China will damage the US-China trade talks,” the brokerage said.
The Beijing parade was also part of a broader shift in global politics. BCA Research argued that “when China signals strong support for the Russian and North Korean war of aggression in Europe – and that it will create a Eurasian bloc of nations in opposition to US leadership, which should be obvious by now – the US and western governments will need to prevent western capital from underwriting that system.”
The brokerage described this alignment as a direct challenge to Washington’s ability to maintain global stability.
3rd party Ad. Not an offer or recommendation by Investing.com. See disclosure here or remove ads.For China, the optics of hosting such a display also serve domestic purposes. With its economy slowing, BCA analysts wrote that “military parades will increase,” part of a strategy to combine “pump-priming and saber-rattling” to distract from weakening income growth.
Markets are already reacting to the heightened tensions. Analysts noted that “global equities to suffer a nearterm shock from this brinksmanship,” particularly in China, where stocks have rallied but now face “hostile regulators at home and renewed US trade risk abroad.”
The brokerage cautioned that in the best-case scenario, “we will only see a ceasefire dividend, not a peace dividend.”
Ultimately, the show of solidarity in Beijing risks encouraging Moscow to intensify its war in Ukraine rather than seek compromise.
BCA Research put the probability of a ceasefire in the next 12 months at 60%, but acknowledged that “recent events since Alaska say we are too optimistic.”
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