Tesla Q1 deliveries to miss consensus by more than 10%: Barclays

Investing.com -- Tesla’s first-quarter deliveries are expected to fall well below consensus estimates, with Barclays forecasting approximately 350,000 units—significantly lower than the 400,000-unit consensus.

"We estimate 1Q deliveries of ~350k units, well below consensus ~400k," Barclays analysts wrote in a note Friday, highlighting that this represents a 30% sequential decline and a 10% year-over-year drop.

The Model Y refresh and weak seasonality are said to be key contributors to the lower figures, with Barclays acknowledging that "investor expectations are more in this range given soft data points thus far in the quarter." 

Tesla’s inventory levels are also expected to shrink, with the bank estimating a 20,000-unit drawdown, reducing global inventory to 70,000-80,000 units due to lower China production for exports and reduced global output during the Model Y Juniper ramp.

Despite the anticipated weak Q1 result, Barclays suggests that the market may "write off" the quarter due to management’s prior guidance. 

"1Q volume was already guided down in the 4Q earnings call, with mgmt noting ’several weeks of lost production in the quarter’ from the global Model Y production changeover," the note highlighted. 

The weakness was said to be primarily concentrated in January and February, and Barclays sees the March delivery run-rate as a more accurate indicator for full-year estimates.

Additionally, Q1 is historically Tesla’s weakest quarter, with Barclays pointing out that Q1 2024 also saw similar softness but ultimately accounted for just 22% of the full-year volume. The firm expects significant volume improvements in Q2 through Q4.

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